Rabu, 22 September 2010



Nica Febrina
Mahasiswa Universitas Gunadarma Fakultas Ekonomi, Jurusan Manajemen (S-1)
Email : nica_febrina@ymail.com

Pembimbing: Dr. Widyatmini, SE, MM
Staf Pengajar Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Gunadarma, Depok


Independent commissioner is one measure of good corporate governance. And according to the Independent Commissioner KNKCG mission is to encourage the creation of a climate that is more objective and put equality (fairness) among various interests, including corporate interests and the interests of stakeholders as a key principle in decision making by the Board of Commissioner and Independent Commissioner should encourage the implementation of the principles and practices of corporate governance Good (Good Corporate Governance) on companies in Indonesia.
This research was conducted at the wholesale companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2008-2009. This study aims to determine the significant influence of independent commissioners and financial performance (as measured by ROA and ROE) against the value of the company together. Firm value is measured by Tobin's Q, proxy GCG taken researcher is proportion of independent commissioners.
The results of 30 samples or 15 wholesale companies listed on the Stock Exchange showed that its financial performance (ROA and ROE) and GCG (Independent Commissioner) no significant effect on firm value (Tobin's Q).

Keywords: Independent Commissioner, Financial Performance (ROA and ROE), Good Corporate Governance (GCG), the Company Value (Tobin's Q)

Rabu, 21 April 2010



The results showed that the effective interest rate to strengthen the exchange rate when there are no factors other non-economic disturbing. Conversely, an increase in interest rates is not effective to strengthen the exchange rate whenever there are factors that disrupt the non-economic, such as various negative rumors, the deployment period, and social unrest. In an effort to control inflation, the effectiveness of interest rates will be lower because of inflation caused by factors other than demand (core inflation) is also affected by supply factors (noise inflation), such as production and distribution. Other research results showed that the increase in interest rates is effective to control core inflation (inflation is a monetary phenomenon), but not effective to suppress the noise inflation (inflation is influenced by real sector).

In a very difficult situation and versatile dilemma, forced to bear the monetary sector, a very heavy burden, namely the stabilization of exchange rates and inflation. Stabilization program is forced to be paid to the interest rate is very high, even reaching more than 70%. In situations like this, while the exchange rate and inflation has not shown significant progress, the pressure from various parties who might destabilize the emerging commitment to stabilize the rupiah.

To reduce the burden of interest rates to control inflation and exchange rates, some of suggestions proposed for the short term include the need to restore confidence in domestic and foreign investors, the banking restructuring program, disbursement of foreign aid to finance the state budget and foreign exchange intervention. For the long term, arrangements for international investors.

1.1. Preliminary
In analyzing the relationship between the increase in interest rates with changes in exchange rates, and rising interest rates with changes in prices (inflation), with price stability or economic growth of the monetary policy affects the economy through four transmission lines:
1. Line rate (Keynesian) argues that monetary tightening reduces the money supply and encourage short-term interest rate increases which, if credible, would arise society's expectations that inflation will fall or long-term real interest rates will rise. Domestic demand for investment and consumption will decline because of rising capital costs so that economic growth will decline.
2. Line believes that the exchange rate of monetary tightening, prompting an increase in interest rates, exchange rate appreciation would result because the revenue flow of capital from abroad. Exchange rate appreciation thus exports will likely decline, while imports increased so that, the current account (balance of payments as well) will deteriorate. As a result, aggregate demand will decrease and so will the rate of economic growth and inflation.
3. Asset price path (monetarist) who argue that monetary tightening would change the portfolio composition of economic actors (wealth effect) in accordance with the expected fringe benefits and risks of each asset. Increasing interest rates would encourage economic actors to hold the assets in the form of bonds and deposits more and reduce the stock.

4. Line of credit is of the opinion that monetary policy affects economic activity through changes in banking behavior in lending to customers. Monetary tightening will reduce the net worth of entrepreneurs. The reduced net worth customers will be encouraged to propose projects that promise hasiltinggi level but also with a high risk (moral hazard), so the risk of bad loans rose. As a result, banks face the adverse selection and reduce the provision of credit so that pace slowed down.

Based on the literature, there are several factors that influence exchange rate movements, namely:
1. Fundamental factors:
Fundamental factors related to economic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, relative income differences between countries, and market expectations of central bank intervention.
2. Technical factors:
associated with foreign exchange supply and demand conditions at certain moments. If there is excess demand, while supply remains, then the foreign exchange rates will rise and vice versa.
3. Market sentiment:
caused more by rumor or political news that is incidental, that could push the price of foreign currency to rise or fall sharply in the short term. If the rumors or news has been passed, then the exchange rate will return to normal.

1.2. Background Problem

The effectiveness of monetary control in Indonesia in recent years is felt less and less as seen in the more difficult the achievement of operational targets of monetary targets and final goals, particularly the inflation and balance of payments.

This problem is apparently associated with system development, operation, and rapid financial market instruments and the more complex and the increasing relevance of domestic and international financial markets which have resulted in:
• Changing the definition, scope, and the behavior of money supply.
• The process of separation of activities between the monetary sector and real sector so that the relationship between money supply and the various variables in the real sector increasingly difficult to predict.
• The greater the traffic flow and speed of capital so that the money supply in the short term be volatile and difficult to control.

Now money is no longer viewed as a means of payment, but also as a commodity traded. Volume velocity of money in the financial sector has far exceeded demand in the real sector financing. The longer the process of disintermediation increases. As a result, the relationship between money supply with various variables in the real sector becomes increasingly complex and difficult to predict. Money demand function has been used as a reference in monetary management becomes less stable behavior.

1.3. Writing Methods
Writing method used by the writer in this writing is to study literature and books that have been penlis read about the problems of writing. Also a writer who seek information from the information-exchange rate changes relate to the company's products.

1.4. Systematics
For ease in completing and analyzing this penulisn then before the presentation of the author divide it into 3 Chapters, namely:
Chapter I Introduction:
This chapter explains briefly about writing belakag background, problem definition, purpose of writing, writing methods and systematics of writing.

Chapter II Discussion:
This chapter describes pergerankan exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation rates impacting on the level of company sales.

Chapter III Conclusion:
This chapter contains conclusions and suggestions for improvements of this writing.

2.1. Inflation
2.1.1 Inflation Penyebap Happen

Economic growth accompanied by inflation. This shows in terms of suppliers, production processes that occur as a policy of monetary expansion is more to increase production capacity without any changes in technology. In other words, this production increase followed by a further decline in the marginal production of labor, as a result of increased use of labor services, whether additional labor and additional work hours.

The implications of this production process is causing the relatively increased production costs. Giving rise to inflation caused by rising costs push. In addition, the people of Indonesia, has a high growth in consumption pattern, also contributed to the encouragement of high inflation. As is well known that a relatively high demand will cause inflation as a result of lack of suppliers in commodity markets.

Conditions in which economic growth followed by high inflation suggests that the microeconomic conditions of Indonesia is still relatively fragile. This means that the development of business environment in macro-economic sector, not much can be conducive to good use.

This inability is caused by a lack of transparency and accountability, thus making companies in Indonesia tend to increase profits without improving the ability of the marginal production of capital. In other words, firms in Indonesia for more attention to company performance in the short term, compared with performance in the long term.

This can be seen from the absence of improvement of the marginal production of capital, caused by the manager's decision to not improve the production technology within the company. Understanding this technology, not just technology machinery / capital goods that are more advanced, but also technological improvements in the management of resources, both manpower training up to company management systems.

2.1.2 Indonesia's inflation rate
Monetary tightening which increased interest rates to curb inflation could lead the debate not only in Indonesia but also in all countries because of different interests. To see what is right from both camps, the causes of inflation need to be sorted between the factor of demand pull and cost push.

Basically, inflation can be divided between permanent and temporary:
1. Permanent rate (core inflation) is:
- The rate of inflation caused by increasing pressure the demand for goods and services (aggregate demand) in the economy, so that - although inflatoir - can permanently increase economic growth.
- Several factors can cause changes in the inflation rate that is permanent is the interaction between public expectations of inflation, money supply, business cycle factors (eg level of utilization of production capacity and inventory), and seasonal demand pressures (eg, religious holiday, harvest season, and the commencement of the new school year).
2. The rate of inflation was temporary (noise inflation) is:
- The rate of inflation caused by occasional disturbances (one-time shock) on the rate of inflation.
- Some of the factors that could cause temporary turbulence is the increase of input costs of production and distribution (eg pass through effect of the depreciation which resulted in an increase of input costs for industry), increase energy and transportation costs, and non-economic factors (such as social unrest, floods , earthquakes, and forest fires).

2.1.3 Impact of inflation on the company's production

Impact of globalization and international markets has memperpuruk Indonesian economy. As has been known to influence the exchange rate in the region east asia has penetrated down to the rupiah currency. In addition, when this happens influence public confidence in the government so that the lower the implications of this effect is weakened value of the rupiah. This has caused companies funding sources and inputs using foreign currency, while revenue in the form of Ru-rupiah, facing great difficulties. This impact is causing companies to cut production so that goods and services traded decreases. While demand is still relatively high, so the effect of inflation that occurred, sourced from two directions ie, cosh push and demand pull. Increased production and lower production costs, by itself affect other industries, even if the industry does not use its funds or raw materials abroad. This is due, declining public revenues, as companies reduce production.

2.2. Currency rates
2.2.1 Movement of exchange rates
In this paper, the exchange rate in a country is determined by a system of interaction between the function of the demand for the country's currency supply. The function of the demand for a currency (FD) is the sum of:
1. Real demand:
Is the demand that arises to meet the needs fungsionalrasional (consumptive functions) which is the basic reason for the creation of a foreign exchange market, where its existence is the basic reason for the interest and trade flow internasioanal (money is considered as the exchange rate), for example: the need to import costs, the need to pay foreign debt, and others.
2. Artificial demand:
A certain number of dollars recorded in the transaction but it appears not because of the need for consumption or in order to conduct international trade transactions, for example:
1. Because of the excessive sense of concern towards the dollar's expected price trend will be further increased so that the purposes of a future filled with more early (panic buying),
2. To maintain the position / interests such as maintaining the stability of the rupiah which was considered too high (over valued against the dollar), then the monetary authority to intervene in the forex market to buy dollars,
3. To get to profit maximization (business speculation and arbitase), and others.
3. Request pseudo:
A number of needs that are not listed in the transaction but to change the price function (corrective), Example: rumors, politics, war, perception, contagion effects, engineering, etc.. This became a corrective nature of the demand function becomes more inelastic price.

Offering total / rate in the market is the sum function:
1. Offers should be:
A number of dollars / specific items that should be in the market, resulting from production process / transaction. Example: Inclusion of dollars from imports.
2. Artificial Offers:
Certain amount of supply of goods and dollars that are not generated from the production function / transaction exists. Example: Assistance from other central banks, the IMF standby loan, etc..
3. Quotes missing (loss suplly):
Amendments to lose a certain amount of goods and dollars that should have. Example: hoarding business.

2.2.2 Risk of exchange rate

The assumption that the management make the decisions for the benefit of shareholders, the exchange rate risk arises whenever a company must connect now or in the future in a foreign currency other than the currency used by the shareholders to fund their consumption. Of course not only the importers / exporters who are affected by exchange rate risk, but the company did not transact in valaspun (no international activity, exports and imports) are affected by exchange rate risk.

Sellers (retailers) sells watches watches Indonesian imports from various countries such as Japan and Switzerland. Retailers are never trade in the forex market or undertake the export and import transactions. However, business opportunities and their consumption are affected by changes in the value of the yen and Swiss franc (franc and the yen appreciation against IDR / Rupiah). This occurs because retailers are selling everyday goods imported (made in Japan and Switzerland). With the existence of such appreciation, the price of imported goods will rise, so the selling price will go up too and in turn would have an effect on business opportunities and consumption of these retailers. Similarly, an Indonesian company which exclusively sell and buy all its inputs from the sources of Indonesia affected by exchange rate risk because of Revenues and expensesnya which is denominated in Rupiah (IDR), the firm faces the risk of foreign exchange rates due to changes in the IDR would affect the position competitive.

2.2.3 How to cope with exchange rate
Exchange rate risk can affect the broad range of companies. Therefore, companies need to do a prediction before taking action to avoid or reduce the risk of losses on foreign exchange. Some functions that require koporasi forecasting exchange rates is:
1. Hedging needs,
Multinational corporations continue to make decisions regarding the necessity of hedging foreign currency debts and receivables in the future. Hedging decisions can be determined after obtaining the results of forecasting foreign exchange. Hedging as a financial strategy will ensure that the value of foreign currency used to pay (outflow) or a number of foreign currencies to be received (inflow) in the future is not affected by changes in foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations. The basic principle of hedging is to make another commitment to balancing in the same currency. Namely, second commitment for the same number of initial commitment but opposite sign.

2. Short-Term Financing Needs,
At large companies to borrow foreign currency loans / foreign currency loans are used for hedging purposes but have been obvious that a large amount of foreign currency has been borrowed is used for domestic purposes. (Debt converted into local currency IDR eg / Rupiah and used for domestic purposes).
Currency they borrowed would ideally:
(1) contains a low interest rate and
(2) to depreciate.

If the loan is not allowed in debtor-hedge foreign exchange risk. The debtor will lose money due to depreciation or foreign currency IDR is experiencing appreciation. Existence of many borrowers to direct foreign exchange risk for foreign exchange hedging their loans by buying foreign currency forwards, which are needed to pay back the loan. Evidence that the forward exchange rate IRP rules ensure that the benefits and also the main risk from foreign currency loans will be eliminated. But the existence of taxes and other market frictions can be fixed at a certain moment and for some particular debtor gives the marginal cost advantage of foreign loans rather than borrowing from domestic sources. These advantages may explain the increase of foreign loans. In many cases, cost considerations are only one of the supporting factors that helped towards the decision to borrow abroad. Clearly that foreign funding is often chosen for funding in the country rather than for its speed and lending instruments offered by large lenders in overseas markets. Example Eurocurrency market in particular is

3. Short Term Investment Decision,
Companies sometimes have excess cash in a significant amount that can be invested for the short term. Deposits of great value to be invested in several currencies. The ideal currency for deposit should:
(1) contain a high interest rate and
(2) experienced an appreciation during the investment period.

Suppose RI companies that have excess cash depositing cash at a bank in Hong Kong, which valutanya experienced appreciation of the ZAR at the end of the period of deposit. At the time of deposit HKD (Hong Kong Dollar) was withdrawn and converted into the IDR, the rupiah was accepted into more than before, due to the appreciation of the HKD IDR (Rupiah) is. Thus the forecast of exchange value mendenominasi deposit needs to be done in determining the place of short-term cash investments.

4. Needs Capital Budgeting,
At multinational companies make decisions on the establishment of subsidiaries in certain countries, MNC will be doing capital budgeting analysis. Forecasting future cash flows used in capital budgeting process will depend on the value of currency in the future. This dependence can occur because:
(1) foreign currency cash flows in or out, need a currency conversion into the country of origin and / or
(2) the effect of exchange rates in the future the demand for
the company's products. Exchange rates can affect cash flows in several ways, but the point that the accuracy of forecasting currency values would improve the accuracy of the estimated cash flows, thereby improving decision-making ability of multinational corporations.

5. Long-Term Financing Needs and
Companies that issue bonds to obtain long-term funds may want mendenominasi bonds in foreign currency. Same as short-term financing, the company would prefer if the borrowed currency to depreciate against currencies that they received from the sale. To estimate the cost of bond issuance which is denominated in foreign currency, exchange rate forecasting is required.

6. Valuation gains.
When multinational companies reported earnings, earnings from subsidiaries (subsidiaries) are consolidated and translated into the parent company financial statements (parent company).

The interest rate of 2.3

The interest rate is basically a view Keynessian where long-term real interest rates most influential in the economy. Monetary tightening and reducing money supply in the short term will encourage the increase of short-term nominal interest rate. If this policy is deemed credible, the public will have expectations that inflation will decline in the future so that the Expected inflation decreases or long-term real interest rates rise. Domestic demand for both investment and consumption will decline as the cost of funds (capital cost of) a higher rate. Finally the rate of economic growth tend to be lower.

Here are some of the monetary policy transmission lines by using interest rate targets:

  intertemporal substitution. Changes in interest rates would change the cost of the loan or income from savings. This will then influence the main components of expenditure, especially for business investment, residential investment and consumption expenditure may also durable goods.
  Exchangerateeffect. In the floating exchange rate system, interest rates increase, ceteris paribus, will normally be associated with exchange rate appreciation in the short term so that imported goods become relatively cheaper and the rate of inflation will decline. Export activity will also be affected due to the sale of export goods will be transferred into the country. Transfer of export product markets would also encourage lower prices in the country.

  Cash-floweffect. With the increase in the nominal interest rate, nominal income borrowers will decline. If borrowers facing liquidity problems caused by rising interest rates and can not borrow again in greater numbers to maintain the original level of spending would have reduced their spending.

  Wealtheffect. Changes in interest rates usually used as a discount factor of revenue expectations for the future will change the value of financial assets and real assets. Change the value of these assets resulted in changes in the level of welfare of the economy and in turn will influence the decision

  Credit rationing effect. Increasing interest rates could encourage banks to improve their risk premiums charged to borrowers or potential borrowers new long due to slowdown in the capacity of borrowers to repay their debts. The implication, increased lending rates, credit supply declines, or there is credit rationing. makes the interest rate as operational target for monetary control.

3.1. Conclusion

Exchange rate risk is the exchange rate changes would not lead to uncertain fluctuations in the value of the company. Companies face the risk of exchange rate when there are potential changes are not anticipated in the exchange rate, which affect / reduce the value of the company. Company told exposed to exchange risk (affected by foreign currency exchange risk), because there is no visible movement of foreign exchange rates.

Differences in interest rates and forward exchange rates between currencies in terdahulu topics provide information about future exchange rate. In addition, a variety of forecasting models used by analysts to help outperform the market. The techniques are applied varies related to the particular exchange rate system existed. Forecasting exchange rates for the fixed exchange rate system (fixed rate system) is essentially a function of the ability to predict the actions of the government. On the other hand, forecasting the exchange rate floating exchange rate system (floating rate system) is a function of a person's ability to predict (forecast) variable-economic fundamental variables. However, empirical evidence indicates that the foreign exchange market is no different from other financial markets in terms of inability to profitable predictions.

3.2. Suggestion

Based on the evaluation results, we propose the following suggestions. For the short term we recommend to take a step or realize the programs that have been made as follows:
1. Restoration of investor confidence domestically and internationally;
2. The implementation of bank restructuring;
3. Disbursement of foreign aid to the foreign exchange market;
4. Implementation of selective credit policy;
5. Completion of private foreign debt;
6. Publishing SBI forex. For the long term,

Some suggestions would be considered the following:
1. Restrictions on foreign liabilities of both private and public;
2. Liabilities placement partially short-term capital inflows in the Central Bank;
3. Increasing the efficiency of the real sector through structural adjustment;
4. The establishment of regional surveillance; and
5. Settings for international investors.


1. Faisal, M. 2001, International Financial Management, with emphasis on practice of foreign exchange market, First Edition. Salemba Four.
2. Iljas, Achjar, "An Overview About the Use of Exchange Rates as Nominal Anchor in Controlling Inflation in Indonesia", paper SESPIBI XVII Force, 1992.
3. Doddy Siswanto Budi Waluyo and Benny (1998), "Role of Exchange Rate Policy in the Era of Deregulation and Globalization" in the Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, UREM, July 1998
4. Hartadi Sarwono and Perry Warjiyo (July 1998), "Searching for the New Paradigm in Monetary Management System of Flexible Exchange Rates", in Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, UREM, July 1998
5. Anwar Nasution, 1997, Entrepreneurship Management Indonesia, No. 10 Th October 1997 XXVI. Jakarta.
6. Marzuki Usman, 1997, Control of rupiah exchange rate: Evidence and Implications, Paper Panel Discussion, October 4, 1997 Faculty of Economics, Padjadjaran University in Bandung
Posted by Nica Febrina at 22:08 0 comments
UNDERSTANDING ABOUT mortgage, mortgages & Fiduciary
UNDERSTANDING ABOUT mortgage, mortgages & Fiduciary
1. Pawn:
1.1 Definition:
rights obtained by creditors on a movable goods given to him by the debtor or other person on his behalf to secure a debt. In addition, authorize the creditor to obtain repayment of such goods from other lenders terebih previously, except for the auctioning of goods and costs incurred to maintain it and the costs that must take precedence.
1.2 The properties of lien:
1. Pawn is good for movable tangible or intangible.
2. Pawn is accesoir means is in addition to the principal agreement to maintain the debtor's negligent not to pay the debt back.
3. The nature of corporeal existence.
4. Terms inbezieztelling, it means pawning items must be out of power gives pledge, or pawn items transferred from the pledgor to the lien holder.
5. The right to sell on his own power.
6. Preference rights in accordance with article 1130 and article 1150 of the Penal Code
7. Lien can not be divided up means some liens will not be removed with a partial payment of debt therefore remain attached to the whole mortgage thing.
1.3 The object of pledge:
All movable and can basically mortgaged, whether movable tangible or intangible form of various rights to obtain payment of money, that is tangible receivables letters to the carrier, on sight, and the comma.

1.4 Rights of lien holder:
1. Entitled to sell mortgaged objects of self rule
2. Entitled to compensation of costs incurred to save pawning items.
3. Reserves the right to hold items until payment hutangdari mortgage borrowers.
4. Entitled to have a reference.
5. Entitled to sell the mortgage with intermediary bodies judges
6. With the permission of judges retain lien objects.

1.5 Liability pawnee:
1. Paragraph 1 of Article 1157 of the Penal Code civil lien holder is responsible for the loss of pawned goods prices that occurred over negligence.
2. Paragraph 2 of Article 1156 of the Penal Code are obliged to inform the pledgor if the pawn goods sold.
3. Paragraph 1 of Article 1159 of the Penal Code beranggung responsibility for the sale of goods pawn.
4. Kewaijban pledge to return the object if borrowers repay their debts.
5. Fiduciary obligation to auction the items.

1.6 wipe all pledge:
1. Basic agreement
2. Extinction pawning items
3. Execution
4. Pawnee has voluntarily releasing liens
5. Pawnee has lost power over pawning items
6. Abuse of pawning items.

2. Mortgages
2.1 Definition:
One right thing "over objects do not move to take the turn from it for a perutangan perlunasan.
2.2 Nature of mortgages:
1. Nature accesoir
2. Nature zaaksgefolg
3. Precedence over fulfillment of other receivables under paragraph 2 of the Penal Code section 1133-1134
4. Object fixed objects
2.3 Object mortgages
1. According to Article 509 of the Penal Code, article 314 paragraph 4 to businesses, and Act no. 12 of 1992 on the cruise.
2. Law number 15 year 1992 about the flight.
2.4 Differences lien and mortgages:
1. Pledge must be accompanied by a statement of power over the goods pawned, while mortgages are not.
2 Pledge of goods pawned delete if transferred to another person, while mortgages are not, but follow the object even if the object teap transferable to another person.
3. One item was never burdened more than one lien, though not forbidden, but some mortgages are jointly charged on one item is already a normal situation.
4. The existence of lien can be proved with all sorts of evidence that can be used to prove the basic agreement while the agreement is proved by authentic documents mortgages.

3. Fiduciary
3.1 Definition:
Letter accesor agreements between debtors and creditors whose content delivery over the trust property is movable property owned by the debtor to the creditor.
3.2 Fiduciary:
1. According to Law. 42 years of article 1angka 1 1999:
Transfer of a basis of trust with the stipulation that the rights of ownership and control diahlikan persists on the owner object.
2. Article 1 number 2 UUJF:
Guarantee the rights of both movable tangible or intangible, and not moving, especially buildings that can not be burdened with the mortgage providers are still in control of fiduciary as collateral for certain uatang perlunasan, that gives preferred status to the giver of fiduciary against other creditors.

Company Profile
PT Cakra Buana is a moving company that specializes in the field of lubricants and care products (maintenance) machine. Companies that already more than a decade-old deals in this lubrication, always develop themselves from time to time in line with the development of industrial technology.

Different from companies that put sellers other lubricants marketing program, which is usually accompanied by non-application demos, we put more emphasis on in-depth technical knowledge about the lubricant itself and correct application.

Our goal is to increase knowledge of the "maintenance" and those other interested parties in the industries of lubricants, so that they can choose and apply the correct lubricant is also appropriate. Because we encounter many people who are very concerned with the lubricant in the industries, which is far from adequate knowledge about lubricants. Many of them just assume just because the fat melts can not stand the heat, assuming a false impression or it could arise because most sellers do demos lubricants comparisons with the way heated / burnt.

That is one example of many things that need to be straightened to avoid the commonness of the "maintenance" used lubricating seller sebenarnyapun limited knowledge, so the impact is detrimental to performance and engine life time also results in both quality and quantity of production.

We almost did not have a marketing program like most other sellers mementingkannya lubricant, but the 'Technical Sales Engineers "we are educated about the product & application knowledge well, their educational background S1 Chemical Engineering and Machinery. Because we believe the ability to provide products that fit and proper, the optimization must be achieved, customer satisfaction. Customer satisfaction is what ensures the success of our marketing.


Company Profile
PT Cakra Buana is a moving company that specializes in the field of lubricants and care products (maintenance) machine. Companies that already more than a decade-old deals in this lubrication, always develop themselves from time to time in line with the development of industrial technology.

Different from companies that put sellers other lubricants marketing program, which is usually accompanied by non-application demos, we put more emphasis on in-depth technical knowledge about the lubricant itself and correct application.

Our goal is to increase knowledge of the "maintenance" and those other interested parties in the industries of lubricants, so that they can choose and apply the correct lubricant is also appropriate. Because we encounter many people who are very concerned with the lubricant in the industries, which is far from adequate knowledge about lubricants. Many of them just assume just because the fat melts can not stand the heat, assuming a false impression or it could arise because most sellers do demos lubricants comparisons with the way heated / burnt.

That is one example of many things that need to be straightened to avoid the commonness of the "maintenance" used lubricating seller sebenarnyapun limited knowledge, so the impact is detrimental to performance and engine life time also results in both quality and quantity of production.

We almost did not have a marketing program like most other sellers mementingkannya lubricant, but the 'Technical Sales Engineers "we are educated about the product & application knowledge well, their educational background S1 Chemical Engineering and Machinery. Because we believe the ability to provide products that fit and proper, the optimization must be achieved, customer satisfaction. Customer satisfaction is what ensures the success of our marketing.



1.1 Background Issues
See the development of today's business world quite rapidly and in a state of the Indonesian economy like this, business is an alternative, or even become the main purpose funds, both managed a small business households, or investing - the investment made by the owners of capital in large ligkup . For example, businesses in the supply of drinking water refill depots (AMDIU).
Drinking water is the most important human needs. As is known, the moisture content reaches 68 percent of the human body, and to stay alive, the water in the body must be maintained. In fact, drinking water needs of each person varies from 2.1 liters to 2.8 liters per day, depending on weight and activity. However, in order to stay healthy, drinking water must meet the physical, chemical, and bacteriological. To meet drinking water needs of the population is not easy. With the level of water consumption on average between 2.1 and 2.8 liters per person per day, most of the drinking water needs are met for water sources from wells or surface water that has been processed by Regional Water Company (PDAM) . Because of increasingly poor quality of well water, while water taps have not been able to supply sufficient quantities and quality, consumption of bottled water (bottled water) rose sharply today.

This encourages the growth of bottled water industry in major cities in Indonesia. Currently there are many depots drinking water industry refill (AMDIU).

growing rapidly and has become one of the alternatives business small and medium scale business as well as contributing to the drinking water supply in big cities.

The emergence of this effort was a very good response from the community. Along with this, investors are aware of this request, then the investors trying to build this business. Because business AMDIU (drinking water refill depots) is quite tempting so few people who do not have the capital plans to open a business such AMDIU. For example, in Bekasi, especially Jl. Pekopen Raya No. 108 Market Singleton, City of Bekasi can be found several AMDIU. This business is home-based businesses are managed directly by the owners of capital. So, in other words AMDIU businesses in the area is still small in scale.

Based on the above presentation, the author will try to examine more info on the ins - outs of the business world through CV Zamzam made reference to scientific writing this with the title "FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT IN CV Zamzam Tambun BEKASI"

1.2 Problem formulation and Limits
At this time the need for water (drinking water) in Indonesia is very worrying. Seeing the fact that there was then, CV Zamzam plans to open new branches in order to expand its business.
The formulation of the problem in this paper is as follows:
• Are opening new branches CV Zamzam is feasible or not to be implemented?

While the problem definition in this writing, limited to the opening of new branches in PERUM Regency. The author conducted a study to CV Zamzam began in April - May 2009, using the SWOT analysis and by calculating:
1. Payback Period (PP)
2. Net Present Value (NPV)
3. Profitability Index (PI)
4. Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

1.3. Objective
To assess the feasibility of investment in starting a business from all aspects of Zamzam CV:
1. Market and marketing aspects
2. Aspects of operational management
3. Aspects of engineering and technology
4. Legal and social aspects
5. Financial aspects

1.4. Benefit Research
1. For authors:
Adding insight and understanding of the ins - outs of the problems faced in opening a business in the field of water production.
2. For the object of research:
Memdapat input / suggestions on the feasibility of a business that will be developed CV Zamzam

3. For general
As a reference in research - further research related to this issue.

1.5. Research Methods
1.5.1. Research Object
CV Zamzam is a private business engaged in the production of drinking water. Using emerging technologies CV Zamzam water can produce high quality and safe to consumed. Zamzam CV stand on August 10, 2007 is located at Jl. Pekopen Raya No. 108 Market Tambun, Bekasi. With a minimum capital CV Zamzam is also able to maintain its presence in this business in early 2009 proved to CV Zamzam intend to re-open a new business with the same field. With a motto of "providing the best quality drinking water" CV Zamzam is committed to always give and serve customers wholeheartedly.

1.5.2 Data and Variables
Because of this scientific writing only about the feasibility of investment in opening new branches CV Zamzam, the data used in this paper is the direct interview data to the owner.

1.5.3 Method of Data Collection
Data collection methods used by the writer in this research are:
a. Bibliographical Method (Lybrary Research) that is by collecting, reading, studying and reviewing textbooks, newspapers, magazines, internet and other discussions related to the author carefully.
b. Field Research (Field Research) to get the data (primere), the author conducted interviews directly to the owner of Zamzam CV



NICA Febrina, 10206676

PI. Management Department, Faculty of Economics, University Gunadarma, 2009.
Key words: Feasibility investment, AMDIU Zamzam.
(Vii + 49 + Annex)
Project feasibility study or business is research that involves many aspects that come from the legal aspects, economic social and cultural aspects of markets and marketing, technical aspects and technology to management and its financial aspects, which were all used for basic research, feasibility studies and the results used to decide whether a project or business can be done or postponed and even ditadak run.
Scientific writing, entitled "Feasibility Analysis of Investment in New Branch Opening Zamzam Tambun Bekasi AMDIU Business" aims to determine whether competent or not an investment that will be executed. To know that the author uses the SWOT analysis tool, and the financial aspects of using the Payback Period, Net Present Value and Profitability Index.
The method used to produce data that the authors made appropriate investments to be realized. This is evidenced by the results of the SWOT analysis with reasonable results and financial aspects of the analysis that shows a positive NPV of Rp 4.349.308.8, and the Profitability Index which generate value> 1 is 1.13.

Bibliography (2000 - 2008)

Jumat, 01 Januari 2010



Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga efektif untuk memperkuat nilai tukar apabila tidak terdapat faktor-faktor non-ekonomi lain yang mengganggu. Sebaliknya, peningkatan suku bunga tidak efektif untuk memperkuat nilai tukar apabila terdapat faktor-faktor non-ekonomi yang mengganggu, seperti berbagai rumor negatif, pengerahan masa, dan kerusuhan sosial. Dalam upaya mengendalikan inflasi, efektivitas suku bunga menjadi lebih rendah karena inflasi selain disebabkan oleh faktor permintaan (core inflation) juga dipengaruhi oleh faktor penawaran (noise inflation), seperti produksi dan distribusi. Hasil peneltian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan suku bunga memang efektif untuk mengendalikan core inflation ( inflasi yang merupakan fenomena moneter), tetapi tidak efektif untuk menekan noise inflation (inflasi yang dipengaruhi oleh sektor riil).

Dalam keadaan yang sangat sulit dan serba dilematis, sektor moneter terpaksa menanggung beban yang sangat berat, yaitu stabilisasi nilai tukar dan inflasi. Program stabilisasi tersebut terpaksa harus dibayar dengan suku bunga yang sangat tinggi, bahkan pernah mencapai lebih dari 70%. Dalam situasi seperti ini, sementara nilai tukar dan inflasi belum menunjukkan kemajuan yang berarti, tekanan dari berbagai pihak bermunculan yang kemungkinan bisa menggoyahkan komitmen dalam menstabilkan rupiah.

Untuk mengurangi beban suku bunga dalam mengendalikan inflasi dan nilai tukar, beberapa saran diajukan untuk jangka pendek antara lain perlunya pemulihan kepercayaan investor domestik dan asing, pelaksanaan program restrukturisasi perbankan,pencairan bantuan luar negeri untuk membiayai APBN, dan intervensi valas. Untuk jangka panjang, pengaturan terhadap investor internasional.

1.1. Pendahuluan
Dalam menganalisis hubungan antara kenaikan suku bunga dengan perubahan nilai tukar, dan kenaikan suku bunga dengan perubahan harga (inflasi), dengan stabilitas harga atau pertumbuhan ekonomi kebijakan moneter akan mempengaruhi perekonomian melalui empat jalur transmisi :
1. Jalur suku bunga (Keynesian) berpendapat bahwa pengetatan moneter mengurangi uang beredar dan mendorong peningkatan suku bunga jangka pendek yang apabila credible, akan timbul ekspektasi masyarakat bahwa inflasi akan turun atau suku bunga riil jangka panjang akan meningkat. Permintaan domestik untuk investasi dan konsumsi akan turun karena kenaikan biaya modal sehingga pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun.
2. Jalur nilai tukar berpendapat bahwa pengetatan moneter, yang mendorong peningkatan suku bunga, akan mengakibatkan apresiasi nilai tukar karena pemasukan aliran modal dari luar negeri. Nilai tukar akan cenderung apresiasi sehingga ekspor menurun, sedangkan impor meningkat sehingga, transaksi berjalan (demikian pula neraca pembayaran) akan memburuk. Akibatnya, permintaan agregat akan menurun dan demikian pula laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.
3. Jalur harga aset (monetarist) yang berpendapat bahwa pengetatan moneter akan mengubah komposisi portfolio para pelaku ekonomi (wealth effect) sesuai dengan ekspektasi balas jasa dan risiko masing-masing aset. Peningkatan suku bunga akan mendorong pelaku ekonomi untuk memegang aset dalam bentuk obligasi dan deposito lebih banyak dan mengurangi saham.

4. Jalur kredit yang berpendapat bahwa kebijakan moneter akan mempengaruhi kegiatan ekonomi melalui perubahan perilaku perbankan dalam pemberian kredit kepada nasabah. Pengetatan moneter akan menurunkan net worth pengusaha. Menurunnya net worth akan mendorong nasabah untuk mengusulkan proyek yang menjanjikan tingkat hasiltinggi tetapi dengan risiko yang tinggi pula (moral hazard) sehingga risiko kredit macet meningkat. Akibatnya, bank-bank menghadapi adverse selection dan mengurangi pemberian kreditnya sehingga laju pertumbuhan ekonomi melambat.

Berdasarkan beberapa literatur, ada beberapa faktor yang mempengaruhi pergerakan nilai tukar, yaitu :
1. Faktor fundamental :
Faktor fundamental berkaitan dengan indikator-indikator ekonomi seperti inflasi, suku bunga, perbedaan relatif pendapatan antar-negara, ekspektasi pasar dan intervensi Bank Sentral.
2. Faktor teknis :
berkaitan dengan kondisi penawaran dan permintaan devisa pada saat-saat tertentu. Apabila ada kelebihan permintaan, sementara penawaran tetap, maka harga valas akan naik dan sebaliknya.
3. Sentimen pasar :
lebih banyak disebabkan oleh rumor atau berita-berita politik yang bersifat insidentil, yang dapat mendorong harga valas naik atau turun secara tajam dalam jangka pendek. Apabila rumor atau berita-berita sudah berlalu, maka nilai tukar akan kembali normal.

1.2. Latar Belakang Masalah

Efektivitas pengendalian moneter di Indonesia dalam beberapa tahun terakhir dirasakan semakin berkurang sebagaimana terlihat pada semakin sulitnya pencapaian sasaran-sasaran operasional berupa sasaran-sasaran moneter maupun sasaran-sasaran akhir khususnya laju inflasi dan neraca pembayaran.

Permasalahan ini tampaknya terkait dengan perkembangan sistem, operasi, dan instrumen pasar keuangan yang pesat dan semakin kompleks serta peningkatan keterkaitan pasar keuangan domestik dan internasional yang telah berdampak pada:
• Berubahnya definisi, cakupan, dan perilaku uang beredar.
• Terjadinya proses pemisahan kegiatan antara sektor moneter dan sektor riil sehingga hubungan antara uang beredar dan berbagai variabel di sektor riil semakin sulit diprediksi.
• Semakin besar dan cepatnya arus lalu lintas modal sehingga uang beredar dalam jangka pendek menjadi berfluktuatif dan sulit dikendalikan.

Kini uang tidak lagi dipandang sebagai alat pembayaran, akan tetapi juga sebagai komoditas yang diperdagangkan. Volume perputaran uang di sektor keuangan telah jauh melebihi kebutuhan pembiayaan di sektor riil. Proses disintermediasi semakin lama semakin menggejala. Akibatnya, hubungan antara uang beredar dengan berbagai variabel di sektor riil menjadi semakin kompleks dan sulit diprediksi. Fungsi permintaan uang yang selama ini digunakan sebagai salah satu acuan dalam manajemen moneter menjadi kurang stabil perilakunya.

1.3. Metode Penulisan
Metode penulisan yang penulis gunakan dalam penulisan ini adalah dengan study kepustakaan dan buku-buku yang telah penlis baca yang berhubungan dengan masalah penulisan. Selain itu penulis yang mencari informasi-informasi dari perubahan nilai tukar behubungan dengan produk perusahaan.

1.4. Sistematika
Untuk mempermudah dalam melengkapi dan menganalisis penulisn ini maka sebelum penyajian maka penulis membaginya kedalam 3 Bab yaitu :
Bab I Pendahuluan :
Bab ini menjelaskan secara singkat mengenai latar belakag penulisan, batasan masalah, tujuan penulisan, metode penulisan serta sistematika penulisan.

Bab II Pembahasan :
Bab ini menjelaskan tentang pergerankan nilai tukar, suku bunga, dan tingkat inflasi yang berdampak pada tingkat penjualan perusahaan.

Bab III Penutup :
Bab ini berisikan kesimpulan dan saran-saran bagi penyempurnaan penulisan ini.

2.1. Inflasi
2.1.1 Penyebap Inflasi Terjadi

Pertumbuhan ekonomi diikuti dengan inflasi. Hal ini menunjukan dari segi pemasok, proses produksi yang terjadi sebagai adanya kebijakan ekspansi moneter lebih kepada meningkatkan kemampuan produksi tanpa adanya perubahan teknologi. Dengan kata lain, peningkatan produksi ini diikuti dengan semakin turunnya produksi marjinal dari tenaga kerja, sebagai akibat peningkatan penggunaan jasa tenaga kerja, baik penambahan tenaga kerja maupun penambahan jam kerja.

Implikasi dari proses produksi ini adalah menimbulkan biaya produksi yang relatif meningkat. Sehingga menimbulkan inflasi yang disebabkan oleh dorongan biaya yang meningkat. Tambah lagi, masyarakat Indonesia, mempunyai pola konsumsi yang tumbuh tinggi, turut menyebabkan dorongan inflasi yang tinggi. Sebagaimana diketahui bahwa permintaan yang relatif tinggi akan menimbulkan inflasi sebagai akibat kurangnya pemasok di pasar komoditi.

Kondisi dimana pertumbuhan ekonomi diikuti oleh inflasi yang tinggi memberikan gambaran bahwa kondisi mikroekonomi Indonesia masih relatif rapuh. Artinya bahwa perkembangan lingkungan usaha di sektor makro- ekonomi yang kondusif tidak banyak dapat dimanfaatkan dengan baik.

Ketidakmampuan ini disebabkan oleh rendahnya transparansi dan akuntabilitas, sehingga membuat perusahaan- perusahaan di Indonesia cenderung untuk meningkatkan keuntungan tanpa memperbaiki kemampuan produksi marjinal dari modal. Dengan kata lain, perusahaan-perusahaan di Indonesia lebih memperhatikan kinerja perusahaan di jangka pendek, dibandingkan dengan kinerja di jangka panjang.

Hal ini bisa dilihat dari tidak adanya perbaikan dari produksi marjinal dari modal, yang disebabkan oleh keputusan pengelola untuk tidak memperbaiki teknologi produksi di dalam perusahaan. Pengertian teknologi ini, tidak hanya teknologi mesin/barang modal yang lebih maju, namun juga perbaikan teknologi dalam pengelolaan sumber daya, baik pelatihan tenaga kerja hingga sistim manajemen perusahaan.

2.1.2 Tingkat Inflasi Indonesia
Pengetatan moneter yang mengakibatkan kenaikan suku bunga untuk meredam inflasi dapat menimbulkan perdebatan tidak hanya di Indonesia, tetapi juga di semua negara karena adanya perbedaan kepentingan. Untuk melihat mana yang benar dari kedua kubu tersebut, penyebab inflasi perlu dipilah antara faktor demand pull dan cost push.

Pada dasarnya inflasi dapat dipilah antara yang bersifat permanen dan temporer :
1. Laju bersifat permanen (core inflation) adalah :
- laju inflasi yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya tekanan permintaan terhadap barang dan jasa (permintaan agregat) dalam perekonomian, sehingga — walaupun inflatoir — permanen dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi.
- Beberapa faktor yang dapat menjadi penyebab perubahan laju inflasi yang bersifat permanen adalah interaksi antara ekspektasi masyarakat terhadap laju inflasi, jumlah uang beredar, faktor siklus kegiatan usaha (misalnya tingkat penggunaan kapasitas produksi dan inventory), dan tekanan permintaan musiman (misalnya hari raya keagamaan, musim panen, dan dimulainya tahun ajaran baru).
2. Laju inflasi yang bersifat temporer (noise inflation) adalah :
- laju inflasi yang disebabkan oleh gangguan sesekali (one time shock) pada laju inflasi.
- Beberapa faktor yang dapat menyebabkan terjadinya gejolak sementara ialah kenaikan biaya input produksi dan distribusi (misalnya pass through effect dari depresiasi yang mengakibatkan kenaikan biaya input untuk industri), kenaikan biaya energi dan transportasi, dan faktor non-ekonomi (seperti kerusuhan sosial, bencana banjir, gempa bumi, dan kebakaran hutan).

2.1.3 Dampak inflasi terhadap produksi perusahaan

Pengaruh globalisasi dan pasar internasional telah memperpuruk ekonomi Indonesia. Sebagaimana telah diketahui pengaruh atas nilai tukar uang di kawasan asia timur telah merambah hingga ke mata uang rupiah. Tambah lagi, pada saat pengaruh ini terjadi kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap pemerintahan semakin rendah sehingga implikasi dari efek ini sangat melemahkan nilai Rupiah. Hal ini menyebabkan perusahaan-perusahaan yang sumber pendanaan dan inputnya menggunakan mata uang asing, sementara pendapatannya berupa Ru-piah, menghadapi kesulitan yang besar. Dampak ini menyebabkan perusahaan mengurangi produksinya, sehingga barang dan jasa yang diperjual belikan berkurang. Sementara permintaan masyarakat masih relatif tinggi, sehingga dampak inflasi yang terjadi, bersumber dari dua arah yaitu, cosh push dan demand pull. Meningkatnya biaya produksi dan menurunnya produksi, dengan sendirinya mempengaruhi industri lain, sekalipun industri tersebut tidak menggunakan dana atau bahan baku luar negeri. Hal ini disebabkan, penurunan pendapatan masyarakat, sebagai perusahaan mengurangi produksi.

2.2. Nilai tukar
2.2.1 Gerakan nilai tukar
Dalam tulisan ini, nilai tukar mata uang di suatu negara ditentukan oleh suatu sistem interaksi antara fungsi permintaan terhadap penawaran mata uang negara tersebut. Fungsi permintaan terhadap suatu mata uang (FD) merupakan penjumlahan antara :
1. Permintaan riil :
Adalah permintaan yang timbul untuk memenuhi kebutuhan fungsionalrasional (fungsi konsumtif) yang merupakan alasan dasar terciptanya sebuah pasar valas, dimana alasan dasar keberadaannya adalah untuk kepentingan dan kelancaran perdagangan internasioanal (uang dianggap sebagai nilai tukar), contoh : kebutuhan untuk biaya impor, kebutuhan untuk bayar hutang luar negeri, dan lain-lain.
2. Permintaan artifisial :
Sejumlah dollar tertentu yang tercatat dalam transaksi namun muncul bukan karena kebutuhan untuk konsumsi atau dalam rangka melakukan transaksi perdagangan internasional, contohnya :
1. Karena rasa kekhawatiran yang berlebih terhadap trend harga dollar yang diekspektasikan akan semakin naik sehingga keperluan yang akan datang dipenuhi lebih dini (panic buying),
2. Untuk mempertahankan posisi/kepentingan tertentu seperti menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah yang dinilai terlampau tinggi (over valued terhadap dollar) maka otoritas moneter melakukan intervensi di pasar valas dengan memborong dollar,
3. Untuk mendapatkan keuntungan sebesar-besarnya (usaha spekulasi dan arbitase), dan lain-lain.
3. Permintaan semu :
Sejumlah kebutuhan yang tidak tercatat dalam transaksi tetapi merubah fungsi harga (korektif), Contoh : rumor, politik, perang, persepsi, contagion effect, rekayasa, dll. Sifat korektif inilah yang menjadi fungsi permintaan terhadap harga menjadi semakin inelastis.

Penawaran total/riil di pasar adalah fungsi penjumlahan :
1. Penawaran seharusnya :
Sejumlah dollar/barang tertentu yang seharusnya berada dipasaran, diakibatkan proses produksi/transkasi. Contoh : Pemasukan dollar dari hasil impor.
2. Penawaran artifisial :
Sejumlah tertentu pasokan barang/dollar yang bukan dihasilkan dari fungsi produksi/transaksi yang ada. Contoh : Bantuan dari bank sentral lain, pinjaman siaga IMF, dll.
3. Penawaran yang hilang (loss suplly) :
Koreksi kehilangan sejumlah tertentu dari barang/dollar yang seharusnya. Contoh : usaha penimbunan.

2.2.2 Resiko nilai tukar

Asumsi bahwa manajemen membuat keputusan-keputusan untuk kepentingan para pemegang saham, resiko nilai tukar timbul kapanpun perusahaan harus berhubungan sekarang ataupun dimasa datang dalam valas selain mata uang yang digunakan oleh para pemegang saham untuk mendanai konsumsinya. Tentu saja tidak hanya importir/eksportir yang terpengaruh oleh resiko nilai tukar, akan tetapi perusahaan yang tidak bertransaksi dalam valaspun (tidak melakukan aktivitas internasional, ekspor maupun impor) terpengaruh oleh resiko nilai tukar.

Contoh :
Penjual (retailer) jam tangan Indonesia menjual jam tangan impor dari berbagai negara seperti Jepang dan Swiss. Retailer tersebut tidak pernah bertransaksi dalam pasar valas atau melaksanakan transaksi ekspor dan impor. Akan tetapi peluang-peluang bisnis dan konsumsinya terpengaruh oleh perubahan nilai dari Yen dan Franc Swiss (apresiasi Yen dan Franc terhadap IDR/Rupiah). Hal ini terjadi karena retailer tersebut setiap harinya menjual barang-barang impor (buatan Jepang dan Swiss). Dengan adanya apresiasi tersebut, harga barang impor tersebut akan naik, sehingga harga jualnya akan naik pula dan pada gilirannya tentu akan berpengaruh pada peluang bisnis dan konsumsi retailer tersebut. Demikian pula dengan perusahaan Indonesia yang secara ekslusif menjual dan membeli seluruh inputnya dari sumber-sumber RI terpengaruh oleh resiko nilai tukar karena revenues dan expensesnya yang didenominasi dalam Rupiah (IDR), perusahaan menghadapi resiko nilai tukar valas karena perubahan-perubahan dalam IDR akan mempengaruhi posisi kompetitifnya.

2.2.3 Cara mengatasi nilai tukar
Resiko nilai tukar dapat mempengaruhi jajaran luas perusahaan- perusahaan. Oleh karena itu perusahaan perlu untuk melakukan peramalan sebelum melakukan tindakan untuk menghindari atau mengurangi resiko kerugian atas valas. Beberapa fungsi koporasi yang membutuhkan peramalan nilai tukar adalah :
1. Kebutuhan hedging,
Perusahaan-perusahaan multinasional terus membuat keputusan berkenaan dengan perlu tidaknya melakukan hedging hutang dan piutang valas di masa datang. Keputusan hedging dapat ditentukan setelah memperoleh hasil peramalan valuta asing. Hedging sebagai strategi keuangan akan menjamin bahwa nilai valas yang digunakan untuk membayar (outflow) atau sejumlah uang asing yang akan diterima (inflow) dimasa datang tidak terpengaruh oleh perubahan dalam fluktuasi kurs valas. Prinsip dasar hedging adalah untuk melakukan komitmen lain penyeimbangan dalam valas yang sama. Yakni, komitmen kedua untuk sejumlah yang sama dari komitmen awal namun berlawanan tanda.

2. Kebutuhan Pembiayaan Jangka Pendek,
Pada saat perusahaan-perusahaan besar meminjam valuta asing,pinjaman/hutang valas tersebut digunakan untuk maksud hedging namun telah jelas pula bahwa sejumlah besar valas yang telah dipinjam digunakan untuk maksud-maksud domestik. (hutang dikonversi kedalam mata uang lokal misalnya IDR/Rupiah dan dipakai untuk tujuan-tujuan domestik).
Valuta yang mereka pinjam idealnya akan :
(1) mengandung suku bunga yang rendah dan
(2) mengalami depresiasi.

Jika pinjaman tersebut dibiarkan tidak di-hedge debitur menghadapi resiko valas. Debitur akan merugi karena depresiasi IDR atau valuta asing tersebut mengalami apresiasi. Eksistensi resiko valas mengarahkan banyak debitur valas untuk melakukan hedging pinjaman mereka dengan membeli valas yang diperlukan secara forward untuk membayar kembali pinjaman. Bukti bahwa kurs forward mematuhi aturan IRP menjamin bahwa manfaat dan juga resiko utama dari pinjaman valas akan dieliminir. Namun adanya pajak dan friksi pasar yang lain dapat tetap pada saat tertentu dan untuk sejumlah debitur tertentu memberikan marginal cost advantage dari pinjaman luar negeri daripada pinjaman yang berasal dari sumber-sumber domestik. Keunggulan-keunggulan tersebut dapat menjelaskan peningkatan atas pinjaman luar negeri. Pada banyak kasus, pertimbangan- pertimbangan biaya hanya merupakan salah satu faktor pendukung yang membantu kearah keputusan untuk meminjam di luar negeri. Secara jelas bahwa pendanaan luar negeri sering dipilih ketimbang pendanaan dalam negeri karena kecepatan dan instrumen-instrumen peminjaman yang luas yang ditawarkan oleh lenders pada pasar luar negeri. Contoh khususnya adalah Eurocurrency market

3. Keputusan Investasi Jangka Pendek,
Perusahaan kadang-kadang mengalami kelebihan kas dalam jumlah yang signifikan yang dapat diinvestasikan untuk jangka pendek. Deposito-deposito yang bernilai besar dapat diinvestasikan dalam beberapa valuta. Valuta yang ideal bagi deposito harus :
(1) mengandung suku bunga yang tinggi dan
(2) mengalami apresiasi sepanjang periode investasi.

Contoh :
Misalkan perusahaan RI yang memiliki kelebihan kas mendepositokan kas tersebut pada sebuah bank Hong Kong, yang valutanya mengalami apresiasi terhadap IDR pada akhir periode deposito. Pada saat deposito HKD (Hong Kong Dollar) ditarik dan dikonversikan ke dalam IDR, rupiah yang diterima menjadi lebih banyak dari sebelumnya, akibat apresiasi HKD terhadap IDR (Rupiah) tersebut. Dengan demikian peramalan nilai valuta yang mendenominasi deposito perlu dilakukan pada saat menentukan tempat investasi kas jangka pendek tersebut.

4. Kebutuhan Penganggaran Modal,
Pada saat perusahaan multinasional membuat keputusan mengenai pendirian anak perusahaan pada negara tertentu, MNC tersebut akan melakukan analisis penganggaran modal. Peramalan arus kas di masa datang yang digunakan dalam proses penganggaran modal akan tergantung pada nilai valuta di masa depan. Ketergantungan ini dapat terjadi karena :
(1) arus kas valas yang masuk atau keluar, memerlukan konversi ke dalam valuta negara asal dan/atau
(2) pengaruh nilai tukar di masa datang atas permintaan terhadap
produk-produk perusahaan. Nilai tukar dapat mempengaruhi arus kas dengan beberapa cara, namun intinya bahwa keakuratan peramalan nilai valuta akan memperbaiki akurasi estimasi arus kas, dengan demikian meningkatkan kemampuan pembuatan keputusan perusahaan multinasional.

5. Kebutuhan Pembiayaan Jangka Panjang, dan
Perusahaan yang menerbitkan obligasi untuk mendapatkan dana jangka panjang mungkin ingin mendenominasi obligasi dalam valas. Sama seperti pembiayaan jangka pendek, perusahaan akan lebih suka jika valuta yang dipinjam mengalami depresiasi terhadap valuta yang mereka terima dari penjualan. Untuk mengestimasi biaya penerbitan obligasi yang didenominasi dalam valas, diperlukan peramalan nilai tukar.

6. Penilaian Laba.
Ketika laba perusahaan multinasional dilaporkan, laba dari subsidiary (anak perusahaan) dikonsolidasikan dan ditranslasikan kedalam laporan keuangan perusahaan induk (parent company).

2.3 Tingkat suku bunga

Tingkat suku bunga pada dasarnya merupakan pandangan Keynessian dimana suku bunga riil jangka panjang paling berpengaruh dalam perekonomian. Pengetatan moneter mengurangi uang beredar dan dalam jangka pendek akan mendorong naiknya suku bunga nominal jangka pendek. Apabila kebijakan ini dianggap credible, masyarakat akan mempunyai ekspektasi bahwa laju inflasi akan menurun di waktu mendatang sehingga expected inflation menurun atau suku bunga riil jangka panjang meningkat. Permintaan domestik baik untuk investasi maupun untuk konsumsi akan menurun karena biaya dana (cost of capital) yang lebih tinggi. Akhirnya laju pertumbuhan ekonomi cenderung lebih rendah.

Berikut ini adalah beberapa jalur transmisi kebijakan moneter dengan menggunakan sasaran suku bunga :

 Intertemporal substitution. Perubahan suku bunga akan mengubah biaya pinjaman atau pendapatan dari tabungan. Hal ini selanjutnya akan berpengaruh terhadap komponen utama pengeluaran, terutama untuk investasi usaha, investasi perumahan, dan mungkin juga pengeluaran konsumsi barang-barang tahan lama.
 Exchangerateeffect. Di dalam sistem nilai tukar mengambang, kenaikan suku bunga, ceteris paribus, biasanya akan dihubungkan dengan apresiasi nilai tukar dalam jangka pendek sehingga barang impor relatif menjadi lebih murah dan laju inflasi akan menurun. Kegiatan ekspor juga akan terpengaruh karena penjualan barang ekspor akan beralih ke dalam negeri. Pengalihan pasar produk ekspor ini juga akan mendorong turunnya harga-harga di dalam negeri.

 Cash-floweffect. Dengan meningkatnya suku bunga nominal, pendapatan nominal debitur akan menurun. Jika debitur menghadapi kendala likuiditas akibat meningkatnya suku bunga dan tidak dapat meminjam lagi dalam jumlah lebih besar untuk mempertahankan tingkat pengeluaran semula maka pengeluaran mereka terpaksa harus diturunkan.

 Wealtheffect. Perubahan suku bunga yang biasa digunakan sebagai faktor diskonto dari ekspektasi pendapatan untuk masa yang akan datang akan mengubah nilai aset finansial dan aset riil. Perubahan nilai aset-aset tersebut mengakibatkan perubahan tingkat kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi dan pada gilirannya akan mempengaruhi keputusan

 Credit rationing effect. Peningkatan suku bunga dapat mendorong bank-bank untuk meningkatkan premi resiko yang mereka bebankan kepada debitur lama maupun calon debitur baru akibat kekhawatiran akan turunnya kapasitas para debitur dalam membayar hutang-hutangnya. Implikasinya, suku bunga kredit meningkat, suplai kredit menurun, atau terjadi penjatahan kredit. menjadikan suku bunga sebagai sasaran operasional pengendalian moneter.

3.1. Kesimpulan

Resiko nilai tukar adalah perubahan-perubahan nilai tukar yang tidak pasti mengarah pada fluktuasi-fluktuasi tidak pasti pada nilai perusahaan. Perusahaan menghadapi resiko nilai tukar pada saat terdapat perubahan-perubahan potensial yang tidak terantisipasi dalam nilai tukar, yang berpengaruh pada/mengurangi nilai perusahaan. Perusahaan dikatakan exposed to exchange risk (terpengaruh oleh resiko kurs valas), karena adanya pergerakan yang tidak terlihat dari nilai tukar valas.

Perbedaan suku bunga dan kurs forward antar mata uang pada topik-topik terdahulu memberi informasi tentang nilai tukar masa datang. Selain itu, berbagai model forecasting digunakan oleh para analis untuk membantu mengungguli pasar. Teknik-teknik yang diaplikasikan bervariasi berkaitan dengan system nilai tukar tertentu yang ada. Forecasting nilai tukar dalam system kurs tetap (fixed rate system) secara esensial merupakan fungsi dari dari kemampuan untuk memprediksi tindakan-tindakan pemerintah. Di sisi lain, forecasting nilai tukar dalam system nilai tukar mengambang (floating rate system) merupakan fungsi dari kemampuan seseorang untuk meramal (forecast) variable-variabel fundamental ekonomi. Namun, bukti empiris menunjukkan bahwa pasar valuta asing tidak berbeda dengan pasar keuangan lainnya dalam hal ketidak mampuan untuk prediksi-prediksi yang menguntungkan.

3.2. Saran

Berdasarkan hasil evaluasi tersebut, kami mengajukan saran- saran sebagai berikut. Untuk jangka pendek kami rekomendasikan untuk mengambil langkah atau merealisasi program yang telah dibuat sebagai berikut:
1. Pemulihan kepercayaan investor domestik dan internasional;
2. Pelaksanakan program restrukturisasi perbankan;
3. Pencairan bantuan luar negeri untuk di pasar valas;
4. Pelaksanaan selective credit policy;
5. Penyelesaian utang luar negeri swasta;
6. Penerbitan SBI valas. Untuk jangka panjang,

Beberapa saran berikut kiranya dapat dipertimbangkan:
1. Pembatasan kewajiban luar negeri baik swasta maupun pemerintah;
2. Kewajiban penempatan sebagian modal masuk jangka pendek di Bank Sentral;
3. Peningkatan efisiensi sektor riil melalui penyesuaian struktural;
4. Pembentukan regional surveillance; dan
5. Pengaturan terhadap investor internasional.


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3. Doddy Budi Waluyo dan Benny Siswanto (1998), “Peranan Kebijakan Nilai Tukar Dalam Era Deregulasi dan Globalisasi” dalam Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, UREM, Juli 1998
4. Hartadi Sarwono dan Perry Warjiyo (Juli 1998), “Mencari Paradigma Baru Manajemen Moneter Dalam Sistem nilai Tukar Fleksibel”, dalam Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, UREM, Juli 1998
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